Illusion ~ Not Everything Is As It Seems To Be

TwinkleSpark

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She became skeptical. He seemed to be unconcerned. There was years and years of distrust buried within her towards him. Yet what she experienced in this meet was unlike ever before. The surface of her heart, which was as hard as a rock, was beginning to melt, upon his mere words. But a tiny voice spoke from somewhere inside, ‘This isn’t worth it. Move on. It’s just an illusion, do not dwell upon it.’ Intuition? Ego? Paranoia? Doubt? She didn’t have even a slightest clue of what was going on deep within her. She was fighting a constant battle against herself. Some of her organs on the side of the devils, while the others on the side of the angels? But then again, who decides who are the angels and who are the devils? Of course, our perspective. But she had lost sense of her perspective. She was mesmerized by…

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2015 Tour de France Predictions

Dart-Throwing Chimp

I like to ride bikes, I like to watch the pros race their bikes, and I make forecasts for a living, so I thought it would be fun to try to predict the outcome of this year’s Tour de France, which starts this Saturday and ends on July 26. I’m also interested in continuing to explore the predictive power of pairwise wiki surveys, a crowdsourcing tool that I’ve previously used to try to forecast mass-killing onsets, coup attempts, and pro football games, and that ESPN recently used to rank NBA draft prospects.

So, a couple of weeks ago, I used All Our Ideas to create a survey that asks, “Which rider is more likely to win the 2015 Tour de France?” I seeded the survey with the names of 11 riders—the 10 seen by bookmakers at Paddy Power as the most likely winners, plus Peter…

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